The Population of Muslims
Islam today is a global religion. It is no longer confined to
Muslim majority countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Indonesia. Small
but significant communities exist across Europe, the Americas and
Australasia. For some time Muslims have been an invisible presence in the
western world but one decade into the 21st century Muslims are no
longer curiosities. They are as much at home in London Paris or Chicago
as they are in Istanbul, Damascus and Jakarta.
In 2011 Muslims in the West also no longer exist in immigrant
communities but are second, third and fourth generation citizens participating
in professional and civic life. Islam is said to be the fastest growing
religion in the United States. It is estimated that more than 1 million
Americans have converted to Islam. In recent years due to an Islamic
revival, believing and practicing Muslims have established a visible presence
not only in Islamic societies but also in the West.
What do the latest data and statistics tell us about the number of
Muslims in the world. Where do they live? How many are born into the Muslim
faith and how many choose to convert to Islam? The majority of the following
statistics and data come from the Pew Research Centre.
According to the Pew[1]
Islam is growing about 2.9% per year. This is faster than the total world
population which increases about 2.3% annually. The world’s Muslim
population is expected to increase by about 35% in the next 20 years. In
mid 2010 the Pew forum estimated that there were 1.57 billion Muslims in the
world. This represents 22% of the world’s population. Islam is the
second largest religion in the world, beaten only by Christianity which
represents 33% of the world’s population with a little over 2 billion
adherents.
The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life stated that Islam is the
fastest-growing religion in Europe. Driven by immigration and high birth
rates, the number of Muslims on the continent has tripled in the last 30
years. Most demographers forecast a similar or even higher rate of growth
in the coming decades.
If current trends continue 79 countries will have a million or more
Muslim inhabitants in 2030, up from 72 countries in 2011. The seven new
countries are expected to be Belgium, Canada, Congo, Djibouti, Guinea Bissau,
Netherlands and Togo. About 60% of the world’s Muslims will continue to
live in the Asia-Pacific region, while about 20% will live in the Middle East
and North Africa, as is the case in 2010. One of the biggest changes
expected is that Pakistan will almost certainly surpass Indonesia as the
country with the single largest Muslim population. [2]
In 2011 statistics tell us that 74.1% of the world’s Muslims live in the
49 countries in which Muslims make up a majority of the population. More
than a fifth of all Muslims (23.3%) live in non-Muslim-majority countries in
the developing world. These minority Muslim populations are often quite
large. India, for example, has the third-largest population of Muslims
worldwide. China has more Muslims than Syria, while Russia is home to
more Muslims than Jordan and Libya combined. [3] About
3% of the world’s Muslims live in more-developed regions, such as Europe, North
America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. [4]
In the United States, the population projections show the number of
Muslims more than doubling over the next two decades, rising from 2.6 million
in 2010 to 6.2 million in 2030. The number of Muslims in Canada is
expected to nearly triple in the next 20 years, from about 940,000 in 2010 to
nearly 2.7 million in 2030. Muslims are expected to make up 6.6% of
Canada’s total population in 2030, up from 2.8% today. Argentina is
expected to have the third-largest Muslim population in the Americas, after the
U.S. and Canada. Argentina, with about 1 million Muslims in 2010,
is now in second place, behind the U.S.
In Europe as a whole, the Muslim share of the population is
expected to grow by nearly one-third over the next 20 years, rising from 6% of
the region’s inhabitants in 2010 to 8% in 2030. In absolute numbers,
Europe’s Muslim population is projected to grow from 44.1 million in 2010 to
58.2 million in 2030. Nearly three-in-ten people living in the
Asia-Pacific region in 2030 (27.3%) will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in
2010 (24.8%) and roughly a fifth in 1990 (21.6%). Muslims make up only
about 2% of the population in China, but because the country is so populous,
its Muslim population is expected to be the 19th largest in the world in 2030.
The growth rates of religions are usually due to conversions, higher
birth and fertility rates and in many countries religions grow because of
immigration. While the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a
faster rate than the non-Muslim population, the Muslim population nevertheless
is expected to grow at a slower pace in the next two decades than it did in the
previous two decades.
Finding statistics and data about the number of people converting to
Islam from other religions or atheism can be difficult. This is usually
not a question asked by government authorities or research centers. In
the next article we will discuss Muslim growth rates across the globe due to
conversion and immigration.
Islam is a global religion, and as we learned in the
previous article it is no longer confined to those countries we think of as
Arabic or Asian. Close to 1.6 billion people across the globe identify as
Muslim. Growth projections paint a picture of unprecedented growth,
faster than the world population growth. 2011 statistics tell us that
74.1% of the world’s Muslims live in the 49 countries in which Muslims make up
a majority of the population. More than a fifth of all Muslims (23.3%)
live in non-Muslim-majority countries in the developing world, and about 3% of
the world's Muslims live in more-developed regions, such as Europe, North
America, and Australia. Where in fact do these 3% of Muslims come from?
Immigration and conversion account for a large
percentage of Muslims living in predominantly western countries.
Governments tend to keep strict immigration records however religious
affiliation is not always recorded. Conversion statistics are notoriously
unreliable but do reveal that the number of people converting to Islam is also
experiencing a high growth rate. From across the globe and from various
sources, both Muslim and non Muslim, government and nongovernmental, we have
collected and collated statistical data in an effort to present a clear picture
of how Muslim growth rates are proceeding into the second decade of the 21st
century.
Let us begin in Australia. According to the 2006
census, 1.7% of the Australian population identified with Islam, this
represents a population growth of 20.9% on the 2001 count – only Hinduism
(55.1%) and “no religion” (27.5%) had bigger percentage jumps in the same
five-year period. Where did this 20% growth rate come from? Apparently
36% were born in Australia, the majority claiming Lebanese, Turkish or broadly
defined Arab ancestry. [5]
Other immigration source countries include the predominantly Muslim Iraq,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Indonesia and Bangladesh. However, approximately
two-fifths of Australia’s Muslims live in Melbourne, and originate from over 70
countries. [6]
There are no reliable statistics for conversions to Islam but mosques
across Australia report that conversions take place frequently.
A report published in January 2011 by the
Washington-based Pew Research centre[7]
suggests Muslim numbers in Australia will increase by 80 percent,
compared with 18 per cent for the population overall, growing from 399,000 at
present to 714,000. This is due first to higher reproduction rates -
Muslim families typically have four or more children, while other Australians
have one or two - and, second, to migration from Muslim majority countries such
as mentioned above.
The estimates of how many Muslims live in Europe vary
wildly, depending on where the statistics are from. It is made even more
difficult by the fact that they are the largest religious minority in Europe,
and Islam is the fastest growing religion. As would be expected Europe’s
Muslim population are ethnically and linguistically diverse and Muslim
immigrants in Europe hail from a variety of Middle Eastern, African, and Asian
countries. Converts are a tiny subset of the Muslim population, but their
numbers are growing. Studies in Germany and France have each estimated
around 4,000 conversions a year in Europe or their respective countries.
In Germany, the estimated 4,000 converts each year[8],
can be compared with an annual average of 300 in the late 1990s, still, less
than 1 percent of Germany’s 3.3 million Muslims are converts. A report by
France’s domestic intelligence agency, published by Le Figaro, estimated last
year[9]
that there were 30,000 to 50,000 converts in
France. The bulk of French Muslims are French citizens, and Islam is
France’s second highest ranked religion.
Muslims are a minority in the United Kingdom, making
up 2.7 per cent of the country's total population of some 60 million
people. The number of converts to Islam is, as expected very difficult to
either predict or find hard data about. One British newspaper however,
the Independent, reports that the number of Britons converting to Islam has
nearly doubled in the past decade, despite the fact that the UK has witnessed a
rise in Islamophobia. This is according to a comprehensive study by inter-faith
think tank Faith Matters.
Previous estimates have placed the number of Muslim
converts in the UK at between 14,000 and 25,000, but this study suggests that
the real figure could be as high as 100,000, with as many as 5,000 new
conversions each year. By using data from the Scottish 2001 census - the
only survey to ask respondents what their religion was at birth as well as at
the time of the survey - researchers broke down what proportion of Muslim
converts there were and then extrapolated the figures for Britain as a whole.
[10]
In the United states of America, according to the Pew
Research Centre, roughly two-thirds (65%) of adult Muslims living in the United
States were born elsewhere, and 39% have come to the U.S. since
1990. A relatively large proportion of Muslim immigrants are from Arab
countries, but many also come from Pakistan and other South Asian
countries. Among native-born Muslims, slightly more than half are African
American (20% of U.S. Muslims overall), many of whom are converts to
Islam. [11]
As is the case in Europe and Australia, researchers
say getting accurate estimates of converts to Islam is the most difficult
challenge of all. Data on conversion from another religion to Islam is
virtually non-existent, and what estimates exist are based on conversion rates
to other faiths that may not apply to the Muslim experience.
Statistics about converts to Islam are much easier to
find in Arabian Gulf countries where Islamic Cultural Centres keep meticulous
records. For instance in Dubai, Huda Khalfan Al Kaabi, head of the New
Muslims Section in the Islamic Affairs and Charitable Activities Department
(IACAD) said, 1,365 people converted to Islam from January to June 2009 as
compared to 878 over the same period in 2008. Observing that 3,763 expatriates
from 72 countries had converted to Islam in an 18 month period, Al Kaabi said
most of them were from the Philippines, Russia, China and India.
Globalisation has contributed to the spread of Islam
around the world, either by immigration or conversion. Borders are more
fluid than ever before and many people are able to make clear decisions about
where they want to live and what religion they want to follow. With or
without hard statistical data it is possible to see clearly that across the
globe people are converting to Islam in large numbers. Islam is a global
religion, no longer based on ethnicity or nationality.
[1] The Pew Research Centre is an American
think tank organization based in Washington, D.C. that provides
information on issues, attitudes and trends shaping the United States and the
world.
[5] Statistical snapshot on Muslim Australians
from a Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission (HREOC) fact sheet.
[6]http://museumvictoria.com.au/immigrationmuseum/discoverycentre/your-questions/muslim-australians/
[7] Pew Research Centre's Forum on
Religion and Public Life, The Future of the Global Muslim Population:
Projections for 2010-2030. Using figures from the Australian Bureau of
Statistics.
[8] A study financed by the Interior
Ministry and carried out by the Soest-based Muslim institute Islam Archive
Germany. (2004-5)
matters.org/resources/publicationsreports/218-report-on-converts-to-islam-in-the-uk-a-minority-within-a-minority
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